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The history of recessions in the United States shows that they are a natural, though painful, part of the business cycle.
The National Bureau of Economic Research determines when a recession starts and ends.
The date that the recession is determined to have begun is the first quarter prior to that date for which the inference from the mathematical model using all data available at that date would have been above 50%. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JHDUSRGDPBR, September 3, 2019.
The next time the GDP-based recession indicator index falls below 33%, the recession is determined to be over, and the last quarter of the recession is the first quarter for which the inference from the mathematical model using all available data at that date would have been below 50%.
All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations.
Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession.
It examines and compares the behavior of various measures of broad activity: real GDP measured on the product and income sides, economy-wide employment, and real income.
The Committee also may consider indicators that do not cover the entire economy, such as real sales and the Federal Reserve's index of industrial production (IP).
In both recessions and expansions, brief reversals in economic activity may occur-a recession may include a short period of expansion followed by further decline; an expansion may include a short period of contraction followed by further growth.
The Committee applies its judgment based on the above definitions of recessions and expansions and has no fixed rule to determine whether a contraction is only a short interruption of an expansion, or an expansion is only a short interruption of a contraction.
For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e.